FREDcast for September 20th, 2021

| :UNRATE | 4.7 | UNRATE_M_Lpredict3 |

| :PAYEMS | 819000 | PAYEMS_M_Lpredict6 |

| :GDPC1 | 3.1 | GDPC1_Q_Lpredict3 |

| :CPIAUCSL | 5.2 | CPIAUCSL_M_Lpredict1 |

Result for FREDcast August 20th, 2021

FREDcast for August 20th, 2021

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate -- Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted (rounded to the nearest 0.1%) -- The Unemployment Rate is the percentage of the labor force that is willing to work, does not have a job, and is looking for work. Unemployment caused by changes in the weather or seasons is removed by government agencies to make the underlying trend in the data easier to observe. For more information on unemployment, check out this podcast: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/economic-lowdown-podcast-series/episode-5-unemployment

Payroll Employment

Payroll Employment -- Monthly Change, Seasonally Adjusted (rounded to nearest thousand persons) -- We will round your forecast to the nearest 1000 persons. Payroll Employment is an estimate of the number of workers U.S. firms employ and send paychecks to every month. The change in payroll employment is the number of jobs added or lost over a month's time. Payroll Employment and the Unemployment Rate are negatively correlated. An increase in payroll employment means businesses are hiring more workers, an action that could reduce the number of people looking for work. Fewer individuals looking for work means lower unemployment. For more information on employment in the labor market, check out this podcast: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/economic-lowdown-podcast-series/episode-10-the-labor-market

Real GDP Growth

Real GDP Growth Quarterly, Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (rounded to nearest .1%) Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the inflation-adjusted value of final goods and services produced by an economy over a period of time. Real GDP growth is the percentage change in GDP from one period to the next. GDP is reported as if the value of final goods and services produced in a quarter had continued over the entire year. This process, called annualization, means the quarterly growth rate for real GDP is actually the percent change between two annualized numbers, producing an annual rate. For more information on Real GDP Growth, check out this issue of Page One Economics: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/page-one-economics-classroom-edition/gdp-does-it-measure-up

CPI Inflation

CPI Inflation Monthly, Percent Change from One Year Ago, Seasonally Adjusted (rounded to nearest 0.1%) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the level of prices of a collection of commonly purchased goods and services (e.g., housing, transportation, food and medical care) in an economy over time. The percentage change in the CPI from one period to the next measures inflation. Inflation is measured as the percent change from one year ago. This means when you are making your forecast, you should consider how much prices have grown today compared with the same month in the previous year. For more information on CPI Inflation, check out this issue of Page One Economics: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2013/08/01/making-sense-of-the-ups-and-downs-of-prices/

My FREDcast for Friday August 20, 2021:

| :UNRATE | 4.8 | UNRATE_M_Lpredict3 |

| :PAYEMS | 1137000 | PAYEMS_M_Lpredict6 |

| :GDPC1 | 2.3 | GDPC1_Q_Lpredict3 |

| :CPIAUCSL | 5.3 | CPIAUCSL_M_Lpredict1 |

Result for FREDcast July 20th, 2021

The four FREDcast series are available in FRED. ... All series in FREDcast are seasonally adjusted. From top to bottom: Real gross domestic product (GDP) is the only quarterly series, and the units are the percent change from the preceding period at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Next is the unemployment rate, which is forecast as a monthly rate. Next are the consumer price index (CPI) and payroll employment. The inflation series used in FREDcast is the percent change in the CPI from one year ago, while payroll employment is the level change from the prior month measured in persons.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1):

Unemployment Rate (UNRATE):

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL):

All Employees, Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS):

FREDcast for July 20th, 2021

Since stlouisfed is discontinuing FREDcast, I'll track my forecasts here. Since COVID, I haven't been doing very well, even though my final forecast, for June 2021, placed 7th on the Public Leader Board (before Real GDP Growth comes in). I'm in the process of refining my modeling.

| :UNRATE | 6.3 | UNRATE_M_Lpredict3 |

| :PAYEMS | 1614000 | PAYEMS_M_Lpredict6 |

| :GDPC1 | -0.3 | GDPC1_Q_Lpredict3 |

| :CPIAUCSL | 5.5 | CPIAUCSL_M_Lpredict1 |

Reverse Engineering the Eview code in FRB/US model

Proud Economy 0014: FRBUSinR

Reverse Engineering the Eview code in FRB/US model

I've started looking at the eview programs in the models packages by indexing the subroutine calls in the frbuseview.nw file. You can see the current results in the generated frbuseview.pdf file.
I'm doing this work on the ReverseEngineer branch in the github project.
Looking at the code brings back memories. This was originally written in Fortran! Look at the ii, jj, kk variable names. I had forgotten about that from when I briefly helped the programmer debug the original model some 45 years ago. Who would have expected nostalgia from something so prosaic. I actually never saw the original source code because I was working with only a hex dump.
Gary Young

FRB/US model packages from the Federal Reserve

Proud Economy 0013: FRBUSinR

Study of FRB/US model packages from the Federal Reserve

(and perhaps port to R language)

FRB/US model packages:

"The main FRB/US model package is a self-contained set of equations, data, programs and documentation that enables various types of simulations and provides information about the model's structure."

"NOTE: The programs for simulating the FRB/US model are written for use with the software EViews, available at www.EViews.com"

Github: proudindiv/FRBUSinR:

Unfortunately, EViews is propritary software and hence not readily accessible. My thought is to explore the information provided by the Federal Reserve using the open source R-language and other freely available tools for truly reproducible results.

My project is at proudindiv/FRBUSinR on github. I hope to produce something that attracts others to participate.

Gary Young