Tuesday, July 20, 2021

FREDcast for July 20th, 2021

Since stlouisfed is discontinuing FREDcast, I'll track my forecasts here. Since COVID, I haven't been doing very well, even though my final forecast, for June 2021, placed 7th on the Public Leader Board (before Real GDP Growth comes in). I'm in the process of refining my modeling.
| :UNRATE | 6.3 | UNRATE_M_Lpredict3 |
| :PAYEMS | 1614000 | PAYEMS_M_Lpredict6 |
| :GDPC1 | -0.3 | GDPC1_Q_Lpredict3 |
| :CPIAUCSL | 5.5 | CPIAUCSL_M_Lpredict1 |
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3 comments:

  1. Proud IndividualJuly 20, 2021 at 11:20 AM

    FREDcast Will Be Retired in August 2021:

    https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2021/06/fredcast-will-be-retired-in-august-2021/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Proud IndividualJuly 20, 2021 at 11:41 AM

    The FRED® Blog post describing the game was posted at https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/01/fan-your-forecasting-flame-with-fredcast/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Proud IndividualAugust 6, 2021 at 10:49 AM

    ### Actual Result Comparison
    **| :UNRATE | Jul 2021: 5.4 | err 0.9 |**
    **| :PAYEMS | Jul 2021: 943,000 | err 671,000 |**
    **| :GDPC1 | xxxx | err xxxx |**
    **| :CPIAUCSL | Jun 2021: 13.699 | err 8.2 |**

    ReplyDelete

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