FREDcast for August 20th, 2021

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate -- Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted (rounded to the nearest 0.1%) -- The Unemployment Rate is the percentage of the labor force that is willing to work, does not have a job, and is looking for work. Unemployment caused by changes in the weather or seasons is removed by government agencies to make the underlying trend in the data easier to observe. For more information on unemployment, check out this podcast: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/economic-lowdown-podcast-series/episode-5-unemployment

Payroll Employment

Payroll Employment -- Monthly Change, Seasonally Adjusted (rounded to nearest thousand persons) -- We will round your forecast to the nearest 1000 persons. Payroll Employment is an estimate of the number of workers U.S. firms employ and send paychecks to every month. The change in payroll employment is the number of jobs added or lost over a month's time. Payroll Employment and the Unemployment Rate are negatively correlated. An increase in payroll employment means businesses are hiring more workers, an action that could reduce the number of people looking for work. Fewer individuals looking for work means lower unemployment. For more information on employment in the labor market, check out this podcast: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/economic-lowdown-podcast-series/episode-10-the-labor-market

Real GDP Growth

Real GDP Growth Quarterly, Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (rounded to nearest .1%) Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the inflation-adjusted value of final goods and services produced by an economy over a period of time. Real GDP growth is the percentage change in GDP from one period to the next. GDP is reported as if the value of final goods and services produced in a quarter had continued over the entire year. This process, called annualization, means the quarterly growth rate for real GDP is actually the percent change between two annualized numbers, producing an annual rate. For more information on Real GDP Growth, check out this issue of Page One Economics: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/page-one-economics-classroom-edition/gdp-does-it-measure-up

CPI Inflation

CPI Inflation Monthly, Percent Change from One Year Ago, Seasonally Adjusted (rounded to nearest 0.1%) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the level of prices of a collection of commonly purchased goods and services (e.g., housing, transportation, food and medical care) in an economy over time. The percentage change in the CPI from one period to the next measures inflation. Inflation is measured as the percent change from one year ago. This means when you are making your forecast, you should consider how much prices have grown today compared with the same month in the previous year. For more information on CPI Inflation, check out this issue of Page One Economics: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2013/08/01/making-sense-of-the-ups-and-downs-of-prices/

My FREDcast for Friday August 20, 2021:

| :UNRATE | 4.8 | UNRATE_M_Lpredict3 |

| :PAYEMS | 1137000 | PAYEMS_M_Lpredict6 |

| :GDPC1 | 2.3 | GDPC1_Q_Lpredict3 |

| :CPIAUCSL | 5.3 | CPIAUCSL_M_Lpredict1 |